Methodology

Player value is standard 9-category z-scoring over the draftable pool for your league size, with volume-weighted percentages (a 92% free-throw shooter on ten attempts moves your team; on two attempts he doesn't). Keeper verdicts compare a player's value against what picks in that round typically return, so a keeper is only ever as good as the pick it eats.

Currently running on last season's per-game numbers. The projection model — with explicit uncertainty: bust probabilities, floor/ceiling ranges — ships behind the season pass once it beats honest baselines on a held-out season. The backtest that decides that will be published here, including where it loses.

We publish derived values only, never raw NBA statistics. Estimates carry uncertainty; anyone selling you certainty about next season is selling.